All Blacks’ coach on the line

Did the Rugby Union err in reappointing Graham Henry? We're just about to find out.

Brett Phibbs/NZH

Renowned expatriate rugby writer Spiro Zavos has seen our worst nightmare, and it’s not pretty: “The final whistle has blown on the 2011 Rugby World Cup final. Amid the roar of the crowd, the fireworks and the pulsating music, the victorious Wallabies are smothering their coach, Robbie Deans, with high-fives and exuberant hugs.”

In his invaluable book How to Watch the Rugby World Cup 2011, Zavos argues that the New Zealand Rugby Union made a strategic error by reappointing Graham Henry despite the All Blacks’ failure at the last World Cup and at the cost of driving Deans, his obvious successor, into Australian rugby’s grateful embrace.

Even if you don’t buy Zavos’s version of what happened in 2007 – NZRU chief executive Steve Tew doesn’t get on with Deans; the turkeys on the board weren’t prepared to vote for Thanksgiving – he makes a strong case that it made no sense to gift Deans and his “irreplaceable intellectual property” to a major rival.

A chief executive in the corporate world takes a radical approach to achieving a critical strategic goal. It fails spectacularly. His heir apparent, a man 15 years his junior, then informs the board he is being courted by a troublesome competitor. How many boards would wave generation next goodbye?

aimRenderAd(300, 250, '300X250','ContentRect','/POS=POS2'); if(!$.browser.msie){ ContentRect_frame = $("#ContentRect")[0]; ContentRect_frame.src = ContentRect_frame.src; }

At the time, the NZRU board insisted the prospect of Deans crossing the Tasman couldn’t and wouldn’t influence the decision, although it never explained why not. The board could have pointed out that it stood to lose intellectual property either way, given that appointing Deans would probably have driven Henry and/or one or more of his assistants, Steve Hansen and Wayne Smith, overseas. It’s not particularly fanciful to suggest Smith, who enjoys a glowing reputation in the UK from his stint with Northampton, would have received an offer he couldn’t refuse from England.

Although this might seem like flogging a dead horse, the reappointment of Henry was a huge gamble by the NZRU, although the implications mightn’t have been apparent at the time. The cards are about to fall. If the All Blacks win the World Cup, the NZRU will be resoundingly vindicated, Henry will depart in a blaze of glory triggering a seamless transition to Hansen, and the Aussies can have Deans for as long as they like.

If they don’t, the mob will bay for a blood sacrifice, a cleansing of the stables. In those circumstances, it’s hard to imagine how Tew or anyone else could foist Hansen on the rugby public and live to tell the tale. But if not Hansen, then who? The combination of Henry’s reappointment and the NZRU’s own rules has drastically reduced the field.

Of the obvious alternatives, Deans has re-signed with Australia until 2013 and Warren Gatland with Wales till 2015. It’s conceivable there are clauses in their contracts enabling them to bail out if the NZRU comes calling, although it’s hard to imagine Australian rugby boss John O’Neill swallowing that arrangement.

Other options like John Kirwan, now doing an admirable job with Japan, are eliminated by the NZRU’s bizarre proviso that applicants must have worked in New Zealand within the past year at ITM Cup or Super 15 level, or have accumulated at least three years’ experience in such roles within the past five years. As has been pointed out, this rule bars former All Blacks coach John Mitchell, yet opens the door for dinky di Aussie and current Wallabies selector David Nucifora, who coached the Blues from 2006 to 2008. It also precludes consideration of the claims of non-Kiwis such as former Springbok and current Italy coach Nick Mallett, former Wallabies coach Eddie Jones, and Ewen McKenzie, who steered the Queensland Reds to the Super 15 title this year.

Former Chiefs coach Ian Foster and former Hurricanes coach Colin Cooper are probably the first cabs off the rank, having got the NZRU seal of approval by being entrusted with the Junior All Blacks. What they don’t have is international experience or a single trophy to show for their combined 16 years as head coaches in Super rugby.